Titre :	Changes of temperature and hydrology caused by an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide as predicted by general circulation models
Type de document :	texte imprimé
Auteurs :	Richard T. Wetherald, Auteur
Editeur :	Chapman and Hall
Année de publication :	1991
Importance :	p 1-17
Langues :	Anglais (eng)
Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	CHANGEMENT DE TEMPERATURE  DIOXIDE DE CARBONE  MECANISME ATMOSPHERIQUE  EFFET DE SERRE  GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS (GCM)
Résumé :	Although there are many areas of disagreement between the various models, it’s worthwhile to highlight the areas of agreement. With regard to temperature, the state-of-the-art GCMs reveal that (1) an increase of global surface temperature due to CO² doubling lies in the range 3.5-5.2°C , (2) over the central United States, the average surface temperature increase ranges from 4 to 6°C during the December-February period and from 3 to 6°C for the June-August period and (3) for all models, the increase of surface temperature is greater in higher latitudes than it is in the tropics. This polar amplification is greatest during the winter and early spring seasons due to the snow/sea ice over albedo process, which opeartes mainly at these times. With regard to hydrology, the latest GCMs reveal that continental snow cover in mid latitudes is less extensive and shallover depth for the higher CO² experiment. This implies that the snow cover there will appear later in fall and disappear earlier in spring and result in less spring runoff from snowmelt (although there will be greater runoff in the form of rainfall). Also the soil surface is exposed earlier in the winter season and therefore, higher rates of evaporation will occur from it which will cause greater soil moisture loss from spring to summer. One of the largest uncertainties in climate-sensitivity studies is the CO² -induced response of precipitation over the continents during the summer season. Whether or not a given GCM will produce a summer dryness scenario appears to be dependent on a poleward shift of the mid latitude storm track (and accompanying rainbelt) and the state of the soil moisture of the standard experiment for both early spring and summer. In the final analysis, a given GCM will produce a tendency for dryer summertime conditions if the projected rainfall is forecast to either decrease or remain the same. Only if the rainfall is forecast to increase at least as much as the projected increase of evaporation will the desication of soil moisture be prevented. Other uncertainties include modeling of cloud processes, active ocean currents and the use of low horizontal resolution. The explicit inclusion of ocean currents can alter the transient or time-dependent phase of a climate sensitivity experiment. Until recently, the use of large grid boxes has hampered the successful simulation of climate, especially on a regional scale. However, the advent of larger and faster supercomputers is making it possible for modelers to rerun their experiments with a higher computational resolution.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Changes of temperature and hydrology caused by an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide as predicted by general circulation models [texte imprimé] / Richard T. Wetherald, Auteur . - Chapman and Hall, 1991 . - p 1-17.
Langues : Anglais (eng)

Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	CHANGEMENT DE TEMPERATURE  DIOXIDE DE CARBONE  MECANISME ATMOSPHERIQUE  EFFET DE SERRE  GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS (GCM)
Résumé :	Although there are many areas of disagreement between the various models, it’s worthwhile to highlight the areas of agreement. With regard to temperature, the state-of-the-art GCMs reveal that (1) an increase of global surface temperature due to CO² doubling lies in the range 3.5-5.2°C , (2) over the central United States, the average surface temperature increase ranges from 4 to 6°C during the December-February period and from 3 to 6°C for the June-August period and (3) for all models, the increase of surface temperature is greater in higher latitudes than it is in the tropics. This polar amplification is greatest during the winter and early spring seasons due to the snow/sea ice over albedo process, which opeartes mainly at these times. With regard to hydrology, the latest GCMs reveal that continental snow cover in mid latitudes is less extensive and shallover depth for the higher CO² experiment. This implies that the snow cover there will appear later in fall and disappear earlier in spring and result in less spring runoff from snowmelt (although there will be greater runoff in the form of rainfall). Also the soil surface is exposed earlier in the winter season and therefore, higher rates of evaporation will occur from it which will cause greater soil moisture loss from spring to summer. One of the largest uncertainties in climate-sensitivity studies is the CO² -induced response of precipitation over the continents during the summer season. Whether or not a given GCM will produce a summer dryness scenario appears to be dependent on a poleward shift of the mid latitude storm track (and accompanying rainbelt) and the state of the soil moisture of the standard experiment for both early spring and summer. In the final analysis, a given GCM will produce a tendency for dryer summertime conditions if the projected rainfall is forecast to either decrease or remain the same. Only if the rainfall is forecast to increase at least as much as the projected increase of evaporation will the desication of soil moisture be prevented. Other uncertainties include modeling of cloud processes, active ocean currents and the use of low horizontal resolution. The explicit inclusion of ocean currents can alter the transient or time-dependent phase of a climate sensitivity experiment. Until recently, the use of large grid boxes has hampered the successful simulation of climate, especially on a regional scale. However, the advent of larger and faster supercomputers is making it possible for modelers to rerun their experiments with a higher computational resolution.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Titre :	Global climate change and water resources
Type de document :	texte imprimé
Auteurs :	John T. Hayes, Auteur
Editeur :	Chapman and Hall
Année de publication :	1991
Importance :	p 18-42
Langues :	Anglais (eng)
Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE  GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS (GCM)  EFFET DE SERRE  RESSOURCES D’EAU  HYDROLOGIE
Résumé :	The global rise of atmosphere CO² and other trace gases alter temperature and therefore, precipitation. Together, these change global, as well as regional climates and hydrology. Evapotranspiration, soil moisture content, surface runoff, groundwater recharge, seasonal snowfall, timing of snowmelt periods, river flows, lake levels, hydrologic variability and sensitivity, natural and artificial storage and seal-level rise and associated coastal flooding will all be affected. Although there may be a growing consensus among climate modelers that a greenhouse warning will increase global precipitation (+7to +15%, Table 2.4), the regional impacts are much less certain (-20 to +20%, Table 2.4) ; several s show tendencies for midlatitude continental interiors to experience greater aridity under 2*CO² equilibrum conditions. Because relatively small changes in precipitation and temperature can have large effects on soil moisture status and the volume and timing of runoff, the impacts of climate change on regional water supplies can be large. We expect regional predictions of climayic patterns of air temperature and precipitation to improve as the horizontal resolution of the GCMs increases (i.e. the spatial mesh used for calculations becomes finer), as the simulation of heat uptake and transport by the ocean improves and as the parameterization of modeled clouds improves in all respects. The 2*CO² experiments by the climate-modelling groups must also evolve from their equilibrium calculations for doubled CO² conditions to the modelling of a transient response to increasing atmospheric CO² (Schneider and Thompson 1981). Such models would incorporate a gradual increasing of simulated CO² content, a more realistic method, which becomes important when water resource and other policy decisions are being made. Lastly, because of the interconnectedness of the physical environment and man’s use of physical resources, environmental and social scientists must evaluate the impact of long-term , simultaneously occuring environmental problems. For example Glantz and Ausubel (1984) compare and contrast the implications of existing groundwater mining of the Ogallala aquifer because of agricultural activities in the United States Great Plains with the potential for increased frequency, duration and severity of droughts in the region with global warming. As the ability of the GCMs to make regional-scale predictions of climate patterns improves, further study of long-term slowly developing but cumulative environmental problems that occur will be needed.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Global climate change and water resources [texte imprimé] / John T. Hayes, Auteur . - Chapman and Hall, 1991 . - p 18-42.
Langues : Anglais (eng)

Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE  GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS (GCM)  EFFET DE SERRE  RESSOURCES D’EAU  HYDROLOGIE
Résumé :	The global rise of atmosphere CO² and other trace gases alter temperature and therefore, precipitation. Together, these change global, as well as regional climates and hydrology. Evapotranspiration, soil moisture content, surface runoff, groundwater recharge, seasonal snowfall, timing of snowmelt periods, river flows, lake levels, hydrologic variability and sensitivity, natural and artificial storage and seal-level rise and associated coastal flooding will all be affected. Although there may be a growing consensus among climate modelers that a greenhouse warning will increase global precipitation (+7to +15%, Table 2.4), the regional impacts are much less certain (-20 to +20%, Table 2.4) ; several s show tendencies for midlatitude continental interiors to experience greater aridity under 2*CO² equilibrum conditions. Because relatively small changes in precipitation and temperature can have large effects on soil moisture status and the volume and timing of runoff, the impacts of climate change on regional water supplies can be large. We expect regional predictions of climayic patterns of air temperature and precipitation to improve as the horizontal resolution of the GCMs increases (i.e. the spatial mesh used for calculations becomes finer), as the simulation of heat uptake and transport by the ocean improves and as the parameterization of modeled clouds improves in all respects. The 2*CO² experiments by the climate-modelling groups must also evolve from their equilibrium calculations for doubled CO² conditions to the modelling of a transient response to increasing atmospheric CO² (Schneider and Thompson 1981). Such models would incorporate a gradual increasing of simulated CO² content, a more realistic method, which becomes important when water resource and other policy decisions are being made. Lastly, because of the interconnectedness of the physical environment and man’s use of physical resources, environmental and social scientists must evaluate the impact of long-term , simultaneously occuring environmental problems. For example Glantz and Ausubel (1984) compare and contrast the implications of existing groundwater mining of the Ogallala aquifer because of agricultural activities in the United States Great Plains with the potential for increased frequency, duration and severity of droughts in the region with global warming. As the ability of the GCMs to make regional-scale predictions of climate patterns improves, further study of long-term slowly developing but cumulative environmental problems that occur will be needed.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Titre :	The role of forests in affecting the Greenhouse gas composition of the atmosphere
Type de document :	texte imprimé
Auteurs :	Richard A. Houghton, Auteur
Editeur :	Chapman and Hall
Année de publication :	1991
Importance :	p 43-55
Langues :	Anglais (eng)
Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE  COMPOSITION DE L’ATMOSPHERE  ROLE DES FORETS  DEFORESTATION
Résumé :	The atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4 and other greenhouse gases have increased during the last century from fossil fuel combustion, industrial activity, deforestation and probably from the global warming during this same period. Atmospheric CO2 has increased by 25% since the 18th century ; atmospheric CH4 has doubled. The rates of increase are accelerating . Approximately 70% of the total annual emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere is currently from combustion of coal, oil and gas ; 30% is from deforestation. Most of this deforestation is in tropics, and outside the tropics, smaller releases of carbon to the atmosphere are in balance with accumulations of carbon in regrowing forests. The reason for the release of carbon following deforestation is that forests hold 20 to 100 times more carbon per unit area than agricultural lands. With deforestation the carbon held in trees and in the organic matter of soil is oxidized by burning and decay and is released to the atmosphere as CO2. Future policies can lead either to the complete elimination of tropical forests in the next century with a release of enough CO2 to increase atmospheric concentrations by another 50% or to an expansion of forest area and a withdrawal of CO2 from the atmosphere. The latter alternative would contribute to a stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gases and would limit the extent of global warming but the contribution would be temporary. The substitution of sustainably managed wood fuels for nonrenewable fossil fuels could reduce the net emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere indefinitely and reverse the century-long accumulation of that greenhouse gas in the atmosphere.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

The role of forests in affecting the Greenhouse gas composition of the atmosphere [texte imprimé] / Richard A. Houghton, Auteur . - Chapman and Hall, 1991 . - p 43-55.
Langues : Anglais (eng)

Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE  COMPOSITION DE L’ATMOSPHERE  ROLE DES FORETS  DEFORESTATION
Résumé :	The atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4 and other greenhouse gases have increased during the last century from fossil fuel combustion, industrial activity, deforestation and probably from the global warming during this same period. Atmospheric CO2 has increased by 25% since the 18th century ; atmospheric CH4 has doubled. The rates of increase are accelerating . Approximately 70% of the total annual emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere is currently from combustion of coal, oil and gas ; 30% is from deforestation. Most of this deforestation is in tropics, and outside the tropics, smaller releases of carbon to the atmosphere are in balance with accumulations of carbon in regrowing forests. The reason for the release of carbon following deforestation is that forests hold 20 to 100 times more carbon per unit area than agricultural lands. With deforestation the carbon held in trees and in the organic matter of soil is oxidized by burning and decay and is released to the atmosphere as CO2. Future policies can lead either to the complete elimination of tropical forests in the next century with a release of enough CO2 to increase atmospheric concentrations by another 50% or to an expansion of forest area and a withdrawal of CO2 from the atmosphere. The latter alternative would contribute to a stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gases and would limit the extent of global warming but the contribution would be temporary. The substitution of sustainably managed wood fuels for nonrenewable fossil fuels could reduce the net emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere indefinitely and reverse the century-long accumulation of that greenhouse gas in the atmosphere.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Titre :	Tree rings as indicators of climatic change and the potential response of forests to the Greenhouse effect
Type de document :	texte imprimé
Auteurs :	Edward R. Cook, Auteur
Editeur :	Chapman and Hall
Année de publication :	1991
Importance :	p 56-64
Langues :	Anglais (eng)
Résumé :	The boreal and eastern deciduous forest examples have provided insights into the large-scale background fluctuations of climate and tree growth that must be considered when searching for the occurrence of CO2-induced climatic change and its effect on forests. The boreal example shows that substantial , long-term changes in tree growth have occurred. These changes are believed to reflect long-term changes in surface air temperature. This complicates the statistical assessment of future changes in both instrumental temperature data and ring widths, making the identification of an anomalous greenhouse effect difficult . Given the high year-to-year persistence in boreal forest tree-rings seen in Fig 4.1B, an anomalous climatic effect on tree growth might have to last several years or decades before it emerges from the background variance and trend also exist in the hemispheric temperature data. However, it appears to be amplified in the boreal tree –ring series used here by the physiological processes of the trees. Yet given these problems, the temperature-sensitive nature of latitudinal and elevational timberline tree species still makes such sites highly appealing in the search for temperature-sensitive nature of latitudinal and elevational timberline tree species still makes such sites highly appealing in the search for temperature-related effects on tree growth. General circulation model estimates of regional climatic change are considered much more reliable for temperature than for precipitation. This means that there may be a reliable expectation of CO2-induced temperature change that can be used to predict the way in which boreal timberline trees will grow in the future. Thus, it may be possible to reduce the uncertainty in interpreting future ring-widths trends in the boreal forest. The eastern deciduous forest example indicates that past large-scale changes in climate and tree growth have been less extreme and persistent compared to the boreal example. Potentially, this makes the identification of CO2-induced climatic change and its effect on ring width easier to identify in this forest region because an unusual series of climatic events caused by greenhouse warming might emerge more quickly from the natural background variance.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Tree rings as indicators of climatic change and the potential response of forests to the Greenhouse effect [texte imprimé] / Edward R. Cook, Auteur . - Chapman and Hall, 1991 . - p 56-64.
Langues : Anglais (eng)

Résumé :	The boreal and eastern deciduous forest examples have provided insights into the large-scale background fluctuations of climate and tree growth that must be considered when searching for the occurrence of CO2-induced climatic change and its effect on forests. The boreal example shows that substantial , long-term changes in tree growth have occurred. These changes are believed to reflect long-term changes in surface air temperature. This complicates the statistical assessment of future changes in both instrumental temperature data and ring widths, making the identification of an anomalous greenhouse effect difficult . Given the high year-to-year persistence in boreal forest tree-rings seen in Fig 4.1B, an anomalous climatic effect on tree growth might have to last several years or decades before it emerges from the background variance and trend also exist in the hemispheric temperature data. However, it appears to be amplified in the boreal tree –ring series used here by the physiological processes of the trees. Yet given these problems, the temperature-sensitive nature of latitudinal and elevational timberline tree species still makes such sites highly appealing in the search for temperature-sensitive nature of latitudinal and elevational timberline tree species still makes such sites highly appealing in the search for temperature-related effects on tree growth. General circulation model estimates of regional climatic change are considered much more reliable for temperature than for precipitation. This means that there may be a reliable expectation of CO2-induced temperature change that can be used to predict the way in which boreal timberline trees will grow in the future. Thus, it may be possible to reduce the uncertainty in interpreting future ring-widths trends in the boreal forest. The eastern deciduous forest example indicates that past large-scale changes in climate and tree growth have been less extreme and persistent compared to the boreal example. Potentially, this makes the identification of CO2-induced climatic change and its effect on ring width easier to identify in this forest region because an unusual series of climatic events caused by greenhouse warming might emerge more quickly from the natural background variance.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Titre :	Ecosystem sensitivity to climate change and complex responses
Type de document :	texte imprimé
Auteurs :	James S. Clark, Auteur
Editeur :	Chapman and Hall
Année de publication :	1991
Importance :	p 65-98
Langues :	Anglais (eng)
Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	SENSIBILITE D’ECOSYSTEME  SENSIBILITE SUR LE CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE  REACTION FORESTIERE  SAISONNALITE
Résumé :	The lessons of history and existing climate dependencies in ecosystems indicate ranges of sensitivities and complex responses. Broad-scale ecosystem processes, such as NPP, may be most sensitive to small changes in water balance in deserts, grasslands and temperate and conifer forests. Decomposition rates and accumulation rates of detritus may be more sensitive in temperate hardwood forests because decomposition rates slow with increasing latitude to a greater degree than do production rates. Because of their higher litter quality , decomposition rates in hardwood forests are likely to be more sensitive to small climatic shifts than are those in conifer stands. This statement refers only to sensitivity, however, as protracted climate change and changes of large magnitude could have greater effects in boreal conifer forests due to the greater accumulation of organic matter in those areas. Nutrient cycling is sensitive to all aspects of macroclimate, microclimate, seasonality, local vegetation cover and disturbance. Different aspects of nutritient cycles respond in different ways to climate change, therefore it is difficult to speculate on the composite effects in given ecosystems. Fire regime appears sensitive to climate change throughout most of the temperate forests, but it is likely that drier conifer forests will display greater sensitivity to climate change than will mesic forests. As long as we have only the vaguest notion of how climate change will change in any given area, however, it is going to be impossible to predict how ecosystems will change. Even if the boundary conditions used in GCMs could be forecast with high confidence, it would still be exceedingly difficult to predict ecosystem transition at local scales because of the complexities of the climate system and of the ecosystem responses. Prediction of ecosystem change must build from this shaky foundation; ecosystem simulations using GCM output are only as good as the climate assumptions they contain. In fact, they are much worse because they contain their own uncertainties . Perhaps half of the papers published on forest ecosystems in leading journals investigate processes that stand-simulation models must assume we already understand. They contain dozens of functional forms and tens to hundreds of parameters. These problems that result from lack of empirical data and ecosystem understanding are no reson to abondon simulation models. They are cause to question model output and to explore the more fundamental question of climate sensitivity, either through field manipulation or synthesis of climate/ecosystem relationships. We have better potential for assessing ecosystem sensitivity than we do for prediction. There is much existing evidence to suggest which processes are sensitive and where and much coild be done to increase this knowledge.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Ecosystem sensitivity to climate change and complex responses [texte imprimé] / James S. Clark, Auteur . - Chapman and Hall, 1991 . - p 65-98.
Langues : Anglais (eng)

Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	SENSIBILITE D’ECOSYSTEME  SENSIBILITE SUR LE CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE  REACTION FORESTIERE  SAISONNALITE
Résumé :	The lessons of history and existing climate dependencies in ecosystems indicate ranges of sensitivities and complex responses. Broad-scale ecosystem processes, such as NPP, may be most sensitive to small changes in water balance in deserts, grasslands and temperate and conifer forests. Decomposition rates and accumulation rates of detritus may be more sensitive in temperate hardwood forests because decomposition rates slow with increasing latitude to a greater degree than do production rates. Because of their higher litter quality , decomposition rates in hardwood forests are likely to be more sensitive to small climatic shifts than are those in conifer stands. This statement refers only to sensitivity, however, as protracted climate change and changes of large magnitude could have greater effects in boreal conifer forests due to the greater accumulation of organic matter in those areas. Nutrient cycling is sensitive to all aspects of macroclimate, microclimate, seasonality, local vegetation cover and disturbance. Different aspects of nutritient cycles respond in different ways to climate change, therefore it is difficult to speculate on the composite effects in given ecosystems. Fire regime appears sensitive to climate change throughout most of the temperate forests, but it is likely that drier conifer forests will display greater sensitivity to climate change than will mesic forests. As long as we have only the vaguest notion of how climate change will change in any given area, however, it is going to be impossible to predict how ecosystems will change. Even if the boundary conditions used in GCMs could be forecast with high confidence, it would still be exceedingly difficult to predict ecosystem transition at local scales because of the complexities of the climate system and of the ecosystem responses. Prediction of ecosystem change must build from this shaky foundation; ecosystem simulations using GCM output are only as good as the climate assumptions they contain. In fact, they are much worse because they contain their own uncertainties . Perhaps half of the papers published on forest ecosystems in leading journals investigate processes that stand-simulation models must assume we already understand. They contain dozens of functional forms and tens to hundreds of parameters. These problems that result from lack of empirical data and ecosystem understanding are no reson to abondon simulation models. They are cause to question model output and to explore the more fundamental question of climate sensitivity, either through field manipulation or synthesis of climate/ecosystem relationships. We have better potential for assessing ecosystem sensitivity than we do for prediction. There is much existing evidence to suggest which processes are sensitive and where and much coild be done to increase this knowledge.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Titre :	Consequences of global warming for biological diversity
Type de document :	texte imprimé
Auteurs :	Robert L. Peters, Auteur
Editeur :	Chapman and Hall
Année de publication :	1991
Importance :	p 99-118
Langues :	Anglais (eng)
Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	EFFET DE SERRE  BIODIVERSITE  CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE  CHANGEMENT LATUDINAL PROJETE
Résumé :	In the geologic past, natural climate changes have caused large-scale geographic shifts in species’ ranges, changes in species composition of biological communities and species extinctions. If the widely predicted greenhouse effect occurs, natural ecosystems will respond in ways similar to the ways they did in the past but the response must be more extreme because of the very rapid rate of the projected change. Moreover, population reduction and habitat destruction due to human activities will prevent many species from colonizing new habitat when their old habitat becomes unsuitable. The synergy between climate change and habitat destruction due to human activities will prevent many more species than either factor alone. These effects would be pronounced in temperate and arctic regions , where tempertaure increases are projected to be relatively large. It is unclear how affected the tropical biota would be by the relatively small temperatures increases projected for the lower latitudes, because relatively little is known about the physiological tolerances of tropical species, but substantial disruption may occur due to precipitation changes. Throughout the world, geographically restricted species might face extinction, whereas widespread species are likely to survive in some parts of their range. In the northern mid- and high latitudes, new northward habitat will become suitable even as die-offs occur to the south. However, it may be difficult for many species to take advantage of this new habitat because dispersal rates for many species are slow relative to the rate of warming and therefore, ranges of even many widespread species are likely to show a net decrease during the next century. Range retractions will be proximally caused by temperature and precipitation changes, increases in fires, changes in the ranges and severity of pests and pathogens, changes in competitive interactions and additional effects of nonclimatic stresses like acid rain and low-level ozone. The best solutions to the ecological upheaval resulting from climatic change are not yet clear. In fact, little attention has been paid to the problem. What is clear, however is that the climatological changes wpould have tremendous impact on communities and populations isolated by development and, by the middle of the next century, may dwarf any other consideration in planning for reserve management. The problem may seem overwhelming . One thing is, worth keeping in mind : if populations are fragmented and small, they are more vulnerable to the new stresses brought about by climate change. Thus, one of the best things that can be done in the short-term is to minimize further encroachment of development upon existing natural ecosystems. Furthermore, we must refine climatological predictions and increase understanding of how climate affects species, both individually and in their interactions with each other. Such studies may allow us to identify those areas where communities will be most stressed as well as alternate areas where they might best be saved. Meanwhile, efforts to improve techniques for managing communities and ecosystems under stress, and also for restoring them when necessary, must be carried forward energetically.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Consequences of global warming for biological diversity [texte imprimé] / Robert L. Peters, Auteur . - Chapman and Hall, 1991 . - p 99-118.
Langues : Anglais (eng)

Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	EFFET DE SERRE  BIODIVERSITE  CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE  CHANGEMENT LATUDINAL PROJETE
Résumé :	In the geologic past, natural climate changes have caused large-scale geographic shifts in species’ ranges, changes in species composition of biological communities and species extinctions. If the widely predicted greenhouse effect occurs, natural ecosystems will respond in ways similar to the ways they did in the past but the response must be more extreme because of the very rapid rate of the projected change. Moreover, population reduction and habitat destruction due to human activities will prevent many species from colonizing new habitat when their old habitat becomes unsuitable. The synergy between climate change and habitat destruction due to human activities will prevent many more species than either factor alone. These effects would be pronounced in temperate and arctic regions , where tempertaure increases are projected to be relatively large. It is unclear how affected the tropical biota would be by the relatively small temperatures increases projected for the lower latitudes, because relatively little is known about the physiological tolerances of tropical species, but substantial disruption may occur due to precipitation changes. Throughout the world, geographically restricted species might face extinction, whereas widespread species are likely to survive in some parts of their range. In the northern mid- and high latitudes, new northward habitat will become suitable even as die-offs occur to the south. However, it may be difficult for many species to take advantage of this new habitat because dispersal rates for many species are slow relative to the rate of warming and therefore, ranges of even many widespread species are likely to show a net decrease during the next century. Range retractions will be proximally caused by temperature and precipitation changes, increases in fires, changes in the ranges and severity of pests and pathogens, changes in competitive interactions and additional effects of nonclimatic stresses like acid rain and low-level ozone. The best solutions to the ecological upheaval resulting from climatic change are not yet clear. In fact, little attention has been paid to the problem. What is clear, however is that the climatological changes wpould have tremendous impact on communities and populations isolated by development and, by the middle of the next century, may dwarf any other consideration in planning for reserve management. The problem may seem overwhelming . One thing is, worth keeping in mind : if populations are fragmented and small, they are more vulnerable to the new stresses brought about by climate change. Thus, one of the best things that can be done in the short-term is to minimize further encroachment of development upon existing natural ecosystems. Furthermore, we must refine climatological predictions and increase understanding of how climate affects species, both individually and in their interactions with each other. Such studies may allow us to identify those areas where communities will be most stressed as well as alternate areas where they might best be saved. Meanwhile, efforts to improve techniques for managing communities and ecosystems under stress, and also for restoring them when necessary, must be carried forward energetically.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Titre :	Multiple threats to widlife : climate change, acid precipitation and habitat fragmentation
Type de document :	texte imprimé
Auteurs :	Richard L. Wyman, Auteur
Editeur :	Chapman and Hall
Année de publication :	1991
Importance :	p134-155
Langues :	Anglais (eng)
Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	MENACE DE LA FAUNE  CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE  PRECIPITATION  DESTRUCTION DE L’HABITAT  EFFET DE SERRE
Résumé :	Amphibians alone provide many examples on how to find examples of the impacts of anthropogenic environmental changes. Amphibians are often small and inconspicuous and so escape our attention . They are very abundant and occur in most forested habitats worlwide. They are also important because they consume huge numbers of invertebrates and hence may play a role in structuring the detritus-based food web. They are sensitive to the kinds of changes that are likely to occur as the earth warms in the greenhouse world. They may be among the first groups to show large scale and rapid changes in population sizes and species numbers. Small changes in overall precipitation or slight changes in timing of precipitation events can spell doom for species that depend on water for survival and reproduction. In one case illustrated here, the yearly chance to reproduce was lost by a species of salamander that already appears to be in peril, when the usual spring rains did not fail. Acid precipitation and climate change may act together to eliminate amphibians from forests, regardless of logging activities, which are harmful in their own right. Long-term deposition of acid on sensitive forest soils is likely to increase acidification. When soils dry, they become increasingly acidic and acid soils appear to be affecting the distribution of 10 species of amphibians in New York already. The projected increase in severity and frequency of droughts may eliminate many amphibians because of dryness, increased soil acidity or the synergistic effects of the two factors. Fragmentation of habitats by human activity shrinks population sizes and makes them more vulnerable to extinction. Loss of migratory corridors forecloses the opportunity for new individuals to reach empty habitats. Polluting aquatic and terrestrial habitats may make them fragmented to the plants and animals that live there. For example, acid deposition may accelerate soil acidification and fragment the habitats of sensitive amphibians. Roadways may be formidable obstacles to animals that migrate among habitat patches. Deforestation shrinks and fragments habitats and produces greenhouse and acid-forming gases, which further fragments habitats. There are too many unknowns regarding the degree and extent of changes that will occur to allow for accurate predictions of likely effects of global climate change. But there is virtual unanimity of opinion that detrimental changes are occuring. Now we are faced with a crisis that we must address and solve. The wholesale loss of habitats, due to overt and more subtle kinds of destruction , the loss of species and local populations and the polluting of our Earth represent the symptoms of the crisis. The roots of the crisis lie in the ever-expanding size of the human population. There are now 5.3 billion people on Earth with an annual increase of 80-90 million. Each person wants clean air, clan water, a place in which to live, food, clothing and warmth. Each dream that his/her children’s children will live in a world as good or better than the one in which he/she lives. But we have built up a human population that uses both our renewable and nonrenewable resources beyond carrying capacity. Many nonrenewable resources simply are running out and we cannot support our population with the renewable ones alone. Even our once renewable resources , like our forests, do not appear to be quite so renewable anymore. The dream appears to be moving out of our reach.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Multiple threats to widlife : climate change, acid precipitation and habitat fragmentation [texte imprimé] / Richard L. Wyman, Auteur . - Chapman and Hall, 1991 . - p134-155.
Langues : Anglais (eng)

Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	MENACE DE LA FAUNE  CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE  PRECIPITATION  DESTRUCTION DE L’HABITAT  EFFET DE SERRE
Résumé :	Amphibians alone provide many examples on how to find examples of the impacts of anthropogenic environmental changes. Amphibians are often small and inconspicuous and so escape our attention . They are very abundant and occur in most forested habitats worlwide. They are also important because they consume huge numbers of invertebrates and hence may play a role in structuring the detritus-based food web. They are sensitive to the kinds of changes that are likely to occur as the earth warms in the greenhouse world. They may be among the first groups to show large scale and rapid changes in population sizes and species numbers. Small changes in overall precipitation or slight changes in timing of precipitation events can spell doom for species that depend on water for survival and reproduction. In one case illustrated here, the yearly chance to reproduce was lost by a species of salamander that already appears to be in peril, when the usual spring rains did not fail. Acid precipitation and climate change may act together to eliminate amphibians from forests, regardless of logging activities, which are harmful in their own right. Long-term deposition of acid on sensitive forest soils is likely to increase acidification. When soils dry, they become increasingly acidic and acid soils appear to be affecting the distribution of 10 species of amphibians in New York already. The projected increase in severity and frequency of droughts may eliminate many amphibians because of dryness, increased soil acidity or the synergistic effects of the two factors. Fragmentation of habitats by human activity shrinks population sizes and makes them more vulnerable to extinction. Loss of migratory corridors forecloses the opportunity for new individuals to reach empty habitats. Polluting aquatic and terrestrial habitats may make them fragmented to the plants and animals that live there. For example, acid deposition may accelerate soil acidification and fragment the habitats of sensitive amphibians. Roadways may be formidable obstacles to animals that migrate among habitat patches. Deforestation shrinks and fragments habitats and produces greenhouse and acid-forming gases, which further fragments habitats. There are too many unknowns regarding the degree and extent of changes that will occur to allow for accurate predictions of likely effects of global climate change. But there is virtual unanimity of opinion that detrimental changes are occuring. Now we are faced with a crisis that we must address and solve. The wholesale loss of habitats, due to overt and more subtle kinds of destruction , the loss of species and local populations and the polluting of our Earth represent the symptoms of the crisis. The roots of the crisis lie in the ever-expanding size of the human population. There are now 5.3 billion people on Earth with an annual increase of 80-90 million. Each person wants clean air, clan water, a place in which to live, food, clothing and warmth. Each dream that his/her children’s children will live in a world as good or better than the one in which he/she lives. But we have built up a human population that uses both our renewable and nonrenewable resources beyond carrying capacity. Many nonrenewable resources simply are running out and we cannot support our population with the renewable ones alone. Even our once renewable resources , like our forests, do not appear to be quite so renewable anymore. The dream appears to be moving out of our reach.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Titre :	Extinction of species : past, present and future
Type de document :	texte imprimé
Auteurs :	David W. Steadman, Auteur
Editeur :	Chapman and Hall
Année de publication :	1991
Importance :	p 156-169
Langues :	Anglais (eng)
Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	EXTINCTION DES ESPECES  CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE  POLITIQUE DE PROTECTION DE L’ENVIRONNEMENT
Résumé :	Throughout the world, species are being lost at a higher rate than ever before. In destoying these products of billions of years of organic evolution, we threten the existence of all natural communities including human communities. In spite of our attempts to live apart from nature, humans require adequate supplies of air, water and food just like any other animal. Our struggles to attain these supplies have been at the expense of natural communities. Reduction of the world’s human population is essential if we are to preserve any respectable portion of the current diversity of plants and animals. In order to be implemented effectively, population reduction and all other environmental efforts must have popular and governmental support at the local, state, national and international levels. Although, one country’s problem may have a clear impact on other nations, international cooperation is facilitated today by the technological advances in communication and transportation that are homogenizing human cultures. The environmental damage being done today in the tropics, is the single largest factor contributing to the loss of species. Although such forest clearing provides short-term sustenance for humans, it also guarantees long-term environmental degradation that eventually will limit human populations as well. Particularly in the past decade, many tropical countries have begun to realize the importance of preserving large tracts of forest. Still today, there is a net loss of tropical forest. Recent innovative financial programs such as “debt-for-nature swaps” are helping to save some tropical habitats. These programs should be supported by those of us who can afford it. As citizens of developed world, there are a number of simple, practical things we can do to alleviate the loss of species. Although these and many other actions are outlined in some detail elsewhere, a few deserve mention here as well, such as having fewer babies, reducing per capita consumption of natural resources, becoming knowledgeable and active in local environmental issues (particularly involving habitat loss), joining conservation groups, doing a nature-oriented trip to the tropics, planting native species of plants to support indigenous wildlife, and not buying products made from tropical hardwoods or from rare or endangered species of animals. A close look at the past 40,000 years shows that we already live in a world much impoverished by human activity. Rather than accept the extinctions of plants and animals that have already occurred as an excuse to con tinue these exploitations, our challenge today is to learn from these losses as we plan for the future.
Numéro du document :	A/MT 26
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Extinction of species : past, present and future [texte imprimé] / David W. Steadman, Auteur . - Chapman and Hall, 1991 . - p 156-169.
Langues : Anglais (eng)

Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	EXTINCTION DES ESPECES  CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE  POLITIQUE DE PROTECTION DE L’ENVIRONNEMENT
Résumé :	Throughout the world, species are being lost at a higher rate than ever before. In destoying these products of billions of years of organic evolution, we threten the existence of all natural communities including human communities. In spite of our attempts to live apart from nature, humans require adequate supplies of air, water and food just like any other animal. Our struggles to attain these supplies have been at the expense of natural communities. Reduction of the world’s human population is essential if we are to preserve any respectable portion of the current diversity of plants and animals. In order to be implemented effectively, population reduction and all other environmental efforts must have popular and governmental support at the local, state, national and international levels. Although, one country’s problem may have a clear impact on other nations, international cooperation is facilitated today by the technological advances in communication and transportation that are homogenizing human cultures. The environmental damage being done today in the tropics, is the single largest factor contributing to the loss of species. Although such forest clearing provides short-term sustenance for humans, it also guarantees long-term environmental degradation that eventually will limit human populations as well. Particularly in the past decade, many tropical countries have begun to realize the importance of preserving large tracts of forest. Still today, there is a net loss of tropical forest. Recent innovative financial programs such as “debt-for-nature swaps” are helping to save some tropical habitats. These programs should be supported by those of us who can afford it. As citizens of developed world, there are a number of simple, practical things we can do to alleviate the loss of species. Although these and many other actions are outlined in some detail elsewhere, a few deserve mention here as well, such as having fewer babies, reducing per capita consumption of natural resources, becoming knowledgeable and active in local environmental issues (particularly involving habitat loss), joining conservation groups, doing a nature-oriented trip to the tropics, planting native species of plants to support indigenous wildlife, and not buying products made from tropical hardwoods or from rare or endangered species of animals. A close look at the past 40,000 years shows that we already live in a world much impoverished by human activity. Rather than accept the extinctions of plants and animals that have already occurred as an excuse to con tinue these exploitations, our challenge today is to learn from these losses as we plan for the future.
Numéro du document :	A/MT 26
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Titre :	Impact of climate-induced sea level rise on coastal areas
Type de document :	texte imprimé
Auteurs :	Stephen P. Leatherman, Auteur
Editeur :	Chapman and Hall
Année de publication :	1991
Importance :	p 170-179
Langues :	Anglais (eng)
Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	ÉLÉVATION DU NIVEAU DE LA MER INDUITE PAR LE CLIMAT  CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE  ZONE HUMIDE
Résumé :	The general response of low-lying lands to sea-level rise is retreat via beach erosion and wetland loss. Already extensive coastal marshes are being lost in Louisiana and in the Chesapeake Bay, because the marshes are not able to keep pace with relative sea-level rise and are presently being drowned in place. The prospect for coastal wetlands is bleak in light of existing conditions and projected changes in climate. It is likely that there will be substantial losses of coastal marshes in the future. 90% of the nation’s sandy beaches are experiencing erosion. Historical shoreline studies indicate a wide range in erosion rates. The Atlantic coast average is between 0.6 and 1m of beach erosion per year. The Gulf coast exceeds 1.6m per year due to local subsidence. The Pacific coast is stable on average due to local tectonic uplift and these spatial variations in erosion rates are due to site-specific conditions such as energy conditions, sediment types, tectonic activity and rates of relative sea-level rise. Three general categories of human responses to shoreline recession are to retreat from the shore, armor the coast or nourish the beach. The proper response is site-specific depending on a number of socioeconomic and environmental factors. Costs and benefits of stabilization or retreat must be carefully considered because the cost in either case is likely to be quite high. The apparent national desire to live in the coastal zone has long-term and expensive consequences. The federally insured flood program is already burdened with billions of dollars of insured properties close to the water’s edge. Accelerated sea-level rise due to the Greenhouse effect will further jeopardize these vulnerable properties, eventually resulting in massive destruction (without ameliorating action) during major storms at great expense to the American taxpayer.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Impact of climate-induced sea level rise on coastal areas [texte imprimé] / Stephen P. Leatherman, Auteur . - Chapman and Hall, 1991 . - p 170-179.
Langues : Anglais (eng)

Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	ÉLÉVATION DU NIVEAU DE LA MER INDUITE PAR LE CLIMAT  CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE  ZONE HUMIDE
Résumé :	The general response of low-lying lands to sea-level rise is retreat via beach erosion and wetland loss. Already extensive coastal marshes are being lost in Louisiana and in the Chesapeake Bay, because the marshes are not able to keep pace with relative sea-level rise and are presently being drowned in place. The prospect for coastal wetlands is bleak in light of existing conditions and projected changes in climate. It is likely that there will be substantial losses of coastal marshes in the future. 90% of the nation’s sandy beaches are experiencing erosion. Historical shoreline studies indicate a wide range in erosion rates. The Atlantic coast average is between 0.6 and 1m of beach erosion per year. The Gulf coast exceeds 1.6m per year due to local subsidence. The Pacific coast is stable on average due to local tectonic uplift and these spatial variations in erosion rates are due to site-specific conditions such as energy conditions, sediment types, tectonic activity and rates of relative sea-level rise. Three general categories of human responses to shoreline recession are to retreat from the shore, armor the coast or nourish the beach. The proper response is site-specific depending on a number of socioeconomic and environmental factors. Costs and benefits of stabilization or retreat must be carefully considered because the cost in either case is likely to be quite high. The apparent national desire to live in the coastal zone has long-term and expensive consequences. The federally insured flood program is already burdened with billions of dollars of insured properties close to the water’s edge. Accelerated sea-level rise due to the Greenhouse effect will further jeopardize these vulnerable properties, eventually resulting in massive destruction (without ameliorating action) during major storms at great expense to the American taxpayer.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Titre :	Double jeopardy for migrating wildlife
Type de document :	texte imprimé
Auteurs :	Robert T. Lester, Auteur ; J. Peters Myers, Auteur
Editeur :	Chapman and Hall
Année de publication :	1991
Importance :	p 119-133
Langues :	Anglais (eng)
Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	DOUBLE PERIL SUR LA FAUNE MIGRANTE  SYSTEME DE MIGRATION  CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE  CONSERVATION DES ESPECES MIGRANTES  SEREGENTI UNGULATE
Résumé :	Global warming promises to transform the natural world, and unable to keep pace with changing climates, many animal and plant populations decline and species are at risk and will be put to extinction.So,one the consequences of this global warming and climatic change is the diminution of the size of the coastal wetlands, boreal forests and arctic and alpine communities. Other ecological effects of global warming will be much more subtle, yet no less profound in their impacts on wildlife and wildlife habitat. For example, changes in the seasonality of temperature, precipitation and other climatologic parameters will have important consequences for many biological phenomena such as flowering , breeding and migration. Many animals migrate long distances to exploit food and other resources that are unevenly distributed in space and time. Seasonal changes in weather patterns generally control the availability of other resources and thus, the timing of these seasonal changes is of critical importance to migratory animals. Global warming threatens to alter many of the fundamental phenologic relationships that have driven the evolution of migration itself. The double jeopardy for migratory animals lies in their reliance upon the precise timing of resource availabilities and their dependance upon habitats that are themselves especially sensitive to changes in climate. Shorebirds, because of the specific characteristics of their migratory system and life histories, provide an especially good illustration of how migratory animals could be affected by climate change. Shorebirds will be affected most by global warming due to changes in the timing of migrations and the availability of good resources along their migratory pathways. These changes could lead to serious population declines in some species. By comparing shorebirds migrations with the migration of ungulates on the Serengeti Plain in East Africa, we could understand how climatic changes could affect different types of migratory systems. The annual migration of ungulates from dry- to wet-season ranges is less constrained in time and space than the long-distance, latitudinal migrations of shorebirds. However, the complexity of biotic interactions associated with this system could leave it equally vulnerable to the climatic changes wrought by global warming. In both cases, global warming will present an unprecedented challenge to the conservation of migratory species.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Double jeopardy for migrating wildlife [texte imprimé] / Robert T. Lester, Auteur ; J. Peters Myers, Auteur . - Chapman and Hall, 1991 . - p 119-133.
Langues : Anglais (eng)

Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	DOUBLE PERIL SUR LA FAUNE MIGRANTE  SYSTEME DE MIGRATION  CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE  CONSERVATION DES ESPECES MIGRANTES  SEREGENTI UNGULATE
Résumé :	Global warming promises to transform the natural world, and unable to keep pace with changing climates, many animal and plant populations decline and species are at risk and will be put to extinction.So,one the consequences of this global warming and climatic change is the diminution of the size of the coastal wetlands, boreal forests and arctic and alpine communities. Other ecological effects of global warming will be much more subtle, yet no less profound in their impacts on wildlife and wildlife habitat. For example, changes in the seasonality of temperature, precipitation and other climatologic parameters will have important consequences for many biological phenomena such as flowering , breeding and migration. Many animals migrate long distances to exploit food and other resources that are unevenly distributed in space and time. Seasonal changes in weather patterns generally control the availability of other resources and thus, the timing of these seasonal changes is of critical importance to migratory animals. Global warming threatens to alter many of the fundamental phenologic relationships that have driven the evolution of migration itself. The double jeopardy for migratory animals lies in their reliance upon the precise timing of resource availabilities and their dependance upon habitats that are themselves especially sensitive to changes in climate. Shorebirds, because of the specific characteristics of their migratory system and life histories, provide an especially good illustration of how migratory animals could be affected by climate change. Shorebirds will be affected most by global warming due to changes in the timing of migrations and the availability of good resources along their migratory pathways. These changes could lead to serious population declines in some species. By comparing shorebirds migrations with the migration of ungulates on the Serengeti Plain in East Africa, we could understand how climatic changes could affect different types of migratory systems. The annual migration of ungulates from dry- to wet-season ranges is less constrained in time and space than the long-distance, latitudinal migrations of shorebirds. However, the complexity of biotic interactions associated with this system could leave it equally vulnerable to the climatic changes wrought by global warming. In both cases, global warming will present an unprecedented challenge to the conservation of migratory species.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Titre :	The nexus of agriculture, environment and the economy under climate change
Type de document :	texte imprimé
Auteurs :	Daniel J. Dudek, Auteur
Editeur :	Chapman and Hall
Année de publication :	1991
Importance :	p 180-200
Langues :	Anglais (eng)
Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE  LIEN ENTRE AGRICULTURE,ENVIRONNEMENT ET ECONOMIE  EFFET DE SERRE
Résumé :	This chapter has attempted to portray the diverse interrelationships between agriculture, the environment and the economy. A particular emphasis has been placed upon describing how climate change might affect each sector and how some of these effects might spill over and cause secondary effects. A central thesis of the paper has been that such secondary effects are crucial to an understanding of the potential consequences of a changing climate and may themselves be enormous. Furthermore, because our knowledge of the current environmental damages from agricultural pollution is limited, a premium is placed on highlighting these limited implications for natural ecosystems. As always though, policy development must be approached holistically with a view to the entire functioning system if it is to be effective.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

The nexus of agriculture, environment and the economy under climate change [texte imprimé] / Daniel J. Dudek, Auteur . - Chapman and Hall, 1991 . - p 180-200.
Langues : Anglais (eng)

Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE  LIEN ENTRE AGRICULTURE,ENVIRONNEMENT ET ECONOMIE  EFFET DE SERRE
Résumé :	This chapter has attempted to portray the diverse interrelationships between agriculture, the environment and the economy. A particular emphasis has been placed upon describing how climate change might affect each sector and how some of these effects might spill over and cause secondary effects. A central thesis of the paper has been that such secondary effects are crucial to an understanding of the potential consequences of a changing climate and may themselves be enormous. Furthermore, because our knowledge of the current environmental damages from agricultural pollution is limited, a premium is placed on highlighting these limited implications for natural ecosystems. As always though, policy development must be approached holistically with a view to the entire functioning system if it is to be effective.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Titre :	Global climate change : potential impacts on public health
Type de document :	texte imprimé
Auteurs :	Janice Longstreth, Auteur
Editeur :	Chapman and Hall
Année de publication :	1991
Importance :	p 201-215
Langues :	Anglais (eng)
Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	MALADIES  EFFET DE SERRE  SANTE PUBLIQUE  EFFET DU CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE
Résumé :	The potential impacts on public health of global climate change pale by comparison to the ecological effects that are likely to occur. However, this is not to say that the public health consequences will be negligible, particulary in nations at an early stage of development. In the United States and most other developed nations, it seems that the greatest public health impacts will be on respiratory diseases. Health effects related to heat stress are also possible but the degree to which such effects occur will be dependent to a large extent on the ability of populations to adapt. This, in turn, will depend to some extent on the rate of climate change. If it occurs slowly, populations may have time to adapt. Poorer populations in the developed nations are also likely to be at greater risk than those with sufficient resources to afford mitigative measures, such as air conditioning. If perinatal mortality and/or preterm birth are exacerbated by summertime conditions, then its not unlikely that global warming will make these problems worse in the United States, which already has an abysmal record among the developed nations in premature birth and infant mortality. In the developing nations, it seems likely that the potential public health consequences of global warming will be many. Impacts on agricultural productivity could prove devastating to countries that are only marginally able to provide adequate nutrition for their populations. If droughts occur, famine will follow and with famine and malnutrition. Malnutrition in turn results in lowered resistance to infection, so epidemics will be more likely. If vectors change venues, then we may also see significant shifts in disease and it is also conceivable that UVR will lower resistance, potentially also contributing to an increase in infectious diseases. These are not insurmountable problems, however, even without global climate change, starvation and disease are major problems throughout much of the world today. Research is needed to determine what crops/cultivars are likely to be resistant to the impacts of the global climate change and to develop susbtitutes for any important crops for which no resistant cultivars can be found. It seems likely that any research to develop drought-resistant strains that are also heat tolerant will be very worthwhile . Much more research is needed into the immunologic effects of UVR and infectious diseases on humans. Furthermore, it is critical to determine if vaccination programs might be compromised by UVR and finally, the role of temperature/or humidity in reproductive effects such as perinatal mortality and preterm birth needs further exploration.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Global climate change : potential impacts on public health [texte imprimé] / Janice Longstreth, Auteur . - Chapman and Hall, 1991 . - p 201-215.
Langues : Anglais (eng)

Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	MALADIES  EFFET DE SERRE  SANTE PUBLIQUE  EFFET DU CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE
Résumé :	The potential impacts on public health of global climate change pale by comparison to the ecological effects that are likely to occur. However, this is not to say that the public health consequences will be negligible, particulary in nations at an early stage of development. In the United States and most other developed nations, it seems that the greatest public health impacts will be on respiratory diseases. Health effects related to heat stress are also possible but the degree to which such effects occur will be dependent to a large extent on the ability of populations to adapt. This, in turn, will depend to some extent on the rate of climate change. If it occurs slowly, populations may have time to adapt. Poorer populations in the developed nations are also likely to be at greater risk than those with sufficient resources to afford mitigative measures, such as air conditioning. If perinatal mortality and/or preterm birth are exacerbated by summertime conditions, then its not unlikely that global warming will make these problems worse in the United States, which already has an abysmal record among the developed nations in premature birth and infant mortality. In the developing nations, it seems likely that the potential public health consequences of global warming will be many. Impacts on agricultural productivity could prove devastating to countries that are only marginally able to provide adequate nutrition for their populations. If droughts occur, famine will follow and with famine and malnutrition. Malnutrition in turn results in lowered resistance to infection, so epidemics will be more likely. If vectors change venues, then we may also see significant shifts in disease and it is also conceivable that UVR will lower resistance, potentially also contributing to an increase in infectious diseases. These are not insurmountable problems, however, even without global climate change, starvation and disease are major problems throughout much of the world today. Research is needed to determine what crops/cultivars are likely to be resistant to the impacts of the global climate change and to develop susbtitutes for any important crops for which no resistant cultivars can be found. It seems likely that any research to develop drought-resistant strains that are also heat tolerant will be very worthwhile . Much more research is needed into the immunologic effects of UVR and infectious diseases on humans. Furthermore, it is critical to determine if vaccination programs might be compromised by UVR and finally, the role of temperature/or humidity in reproductive effects such as perinatal mortality and preterm birth needs further exploration.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Titre :	Potential impact of global warming : climate change and human mortality
Type de document :	texte imprimé
Auteurs :	Laurence S. Kalkstein, Auteur
Editeur :	Chapman and Hall
Année de publication :	1991
Importance :	p 216-223
Langues :	Anglais (eng)
Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	MORTALITE HUMAINE  CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE
Résumé :	This study has suggested that weather has a profound effect on human mortality and that the impact is different depending on a seasonal and regional variations. In addition, it appears that human mortality may increase if a global warming occurs similar to what is predicted by the GCMs. If the population does not acclimatize, over 7000 additional annual deaths atributable to the increasingly harsh weather can be expected in the SMSAs of the 15-city sample . This figure is more startling when it is considered that these numbers correspond to average summer conditions. An analog of the very hot summer of 1998 occuring in the 21st century will no doubt increase weather-unduced mortality to a much higher number. Although estimates for partial acclimatization are more modest, general increases are still expected and deaths attributable to weather are predicted to increase by four to five times the present levels. The global implications of these findings are possibly more alarming and similar climate changes are predicted for Third World and other lesser developed countries and there is no reason to expect that the mortality response to more stressful weather will be any less in these regions. In fact, the migration of insect vectors, which transmit a variety of infectious diseases, may exacerbate the problem even further in underdeveloped countries where health care facilities are inadequate. Thus, it appears that specific policy decisions are necessary to prepare for a significant rise in human mortality if the warming scenarios reflect climate conditions into the 21st century.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Potential impact of global warming : climate change and human mortality [texte imprimé] / Laurence S. Kalkstein, Auteur . - Chapman and Hall, 1991 . - p 216-223.
Langues : Anglais (eng)

Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	MORTALITE HUMAINE  CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE
Résumé :	This study has suggested that weather has a profound effect on human mortality and that the impact is different depending on a seasonal and regional variations. In addition, it appears that human mortality may increase if a global warming occurs similar to what is predicted by the GCMs. If the population does not acclimatize, over 7000 additional annual deaths atributable to the increasingly harsh weather can be expected in the SMSAs of the 15-city sample . This figure is more startling when it is considered that these numbers correspond to average summer conditions. An analog of the very hot summer of 1998 occuring in the 21st century will no doubt increase weather-unduced mortality to a much higher number. Although estimates for partial acclimatization are more modest, general increases are still expected and deaths attributable to weather are predicted to increase by four to five times the present levels. The global implications of these findings are possibly more alarming and similar climate changes are predicted for Third World and other lesser developed countries and there is no reason to expect that the mortality response to more stressful weather will be any less in these regions. In fact, the migration of insect vectors, which transmit a variety of infectious diseases, may exacerbate the problem even further in underdeveloped countries where health care facilities are inadequate. Thus, it appears that specific policy decisions are necessary to prepare for a significant rise in human mortality if the warming scenarios reflect climate conditions into the 21st century.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Titre :	Energy policy and global warming
Type de document :	texte imprimé
Auteurs :	Jan Beyea, Auteur
Editeur :	Chapman and Hall
Année de publication :	1995
Importance :	p 224-242
Langues :	Anglais (eng)
Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	POLITIQUE DE L’ENERGIE  EFFET DE SERRE  DIFFERENTES ENERGIES  UTILISATION DES COMBUSTIBLES FOSSILES
Résumé :	We have a moral responsibility to prevent climate disaster and we can do so without disruption by steadily cutting CO2 emissions 2% a year over the next 50 years. The United States must set an example in developing an environmentally responsible energy policy, one that always takes climate protection into consideration. For their part, environmentalists must realize that conventional use of coal can no longer be considered an acceptable substitute for nuclear power. We have many options and must consider the environmental pluses and minuses of each. As the first part of the solution, the public must be educated about energy efficiency , including the need to change transportation and recycling infrastructures. Keeping energy consumptionconstant or slightly declining while the economy is growing is a worthy goal. To accomplish it efficiency standards must be imposed, even at the risk of interfering with the free market. The other half of the solution is solar technologies. They can make a big difference, for they cause much fewer environmental problems than fossil fuels. Expanding research into photovoltaics could be the most important energy research step that can be taken for the future. Photovoltaics alone could power the entire economy in an environmentally reponsible manner. Other possibilities, such as hydropower, wind, ocean-thermal, geothermal, biomass and fusion have less potential. Nuclear power does protect the climate but has other problems and is in public disfavor. For it to replace coal electricity would require the siting of 500 facilities over the next 50 years, which would meet resistance. However, second-generation nuclear designs are worth researching as an insurance policy, to guard against failure of the solar option. Over the long term, we will have to pay more for energy to cut down CO2emissions , but the cost of living in a deteriorated world for our descendants would be much greater.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Energy policy and global warming [texte imprimé] / Jan Beyea, Auteur . - Chapman and Hall, 1995 . - p 224-242.
Langues : Anglais (eng)

Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	POLITIQUE DE L’ENERGIE  EFFET DE SERRE  DIFFERENTES ENERGIES  UTILISATION DES COMBUSTIBLES FOSSILES
Résumé :	We have a moral responsibility to prevent climate disaster and we can do so without disruption by steadily cutting CO2 emissions 2% a year over the next 50 years. The United States must set an example in developing an environmentally responsible energy policy, one that always takes climate protection into consideration. For their part, environmentalists must realize that conventional use of coal can no longer be considered an acceptable substitute for nuclear power. We have many options and must consider the environmental pluses and minuses of each. As the first part of the solution, the public must be educated about energy efficiency , including the need to change transportation and recycling infrastructures. Keeping energy consumptionconstant or slightly declining while the economy is growing is a worthy goal. To accomplish it efficiency standards must be imposed, even at the risk of interfering with the free market. The other half of the solution is solar technologies. They can make a big difference, for they cause much fewer environmental problems than fossil fuels. Expanding research into photovoltaics could be the most important energy research step that can be taken for the future. Photovoltaics alone could power the entire economy in an environmentally reponsible manner. Other possibilities, such as hydropower, wind, ocean-thermal, geothermal, biomass and fusion have less potential. Nuclear power does protect the climate but has other problems and is in public disfavor. For it to replace coal electricity would require the siting of 500 facilities over the next 50 years, which would meet resistance. However, second-generation nuclear designs are worth researching as an insurance policy, to guard against failure of the solar option. Over the long term, we will have to pay more for energy to cut down CO2emissions , but the cost of living in a deteriorated world for our descendants would be much greater.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Titre :	The challenge of global warming
Type de document :	texte imprimé
Auteurs :	Dean Abrahamson, Auteur
Editeur :	Chapman and Hall
Année de publication :	1991
Importance :	p 243-251
Langues :	Anglais (eng)
Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	EFFET MEDICAMENT  CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE
Résumé :	Some people say that some standards of scientific objectivity are met and that global warming may not be as serious as has been represented or that some uncertainties are not presented yet .So as to objectivity, we are very much aware that the motto of the 1993 Chicago World’s Fair-Science Finds, Industry Applies, Man Conforms – is yet the dominant paradigm of contemporary industrialized society. As is fashionable, the most optimistic case of future climatic change is not presented yet and if we are extremely fortunate in that, the most favorable outcomes of current climate models ultimately prove to be fact and the feedbacks not included in present models prove to cancel each other out and if we pursue aggressive, effective policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, global heating might be limited to 1 or 2°C more than the nearly 1°C warming already observed. Yet even this climatic change would have serious impacts. As to uncertainties, they provide a further compelling reason to slow and halt global climatic change as quickly as possible. If there were no uncertainties, we would at least be able to plan. The National Academy of Sciences has summarized: we have little confidence in predictions about many details of the forecasts: local changes by city or state, exact shifts.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

The challenge of global warming [texte imprimé] / Dean Abrahamson, Auteur . - Chapman and Hall, 1991 . - p 243-251.
Langues : Anglais (eng)

Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	EFFET MEDICAMENT  CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE
Résumé :	Some people say that some standards of scientific objectivity are met and that global warming may not be as serious as has been represented or that some uncertainties are not presented yet .So as to objectivity, we are very much aware that the motto of the 1993 Chicago World’s Fair-Science Finds, Industry Applies, Man Conforms – is yet the dominant paradigm of contemporary industrialized society. As is fashionable, the most optimistic case of future climatic change is not presented yet and if we are extremely fortunate in that, the most favorable outcomes of current climate models ultimately prove to be fact and the feedbacks not included in present models prove to cancel each other out and if we pursue aggressive, effective policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, global heating might be limited to 1 or 2°C more than the nearly 1°C warming already observed. Yet even this climatic change would have serious impacts. As to uncertainties, they provide a further compelling reason to slow and halt global climatic change as quickly as possible. If there were no uncertainties, we would at least be able to plan. The National Academy of Sciences has summarized: we have little confidence in predictions about many details of the forecasts: local changes by city or state, exact shifts.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Titre :	Now what do we do?
Type de document :	texte imprimé
Auteurs :	Richard L. Wyman, Auteur ; David W. Steadman, Auteur ; Martin E. Sullivan, Auteur
Editeur :	Chapman and Hall
Année de publication :	1991
Importance :	p 252-263
Langues :	Anglais (eng)
Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE  EFFET DE SERRE  POLITIQUE ENVIRONMENTALE  CONSERVATION DE LA NATURE
Résumé :	This chapter talks about the environmental threats that the world faces and this world has so much momentum that unless steps are taken now to reverse them, they will soon overwhelm our ability to respond, so the effort must be concerted, rapid and clearly directed. The thoughts and analyses presented in this chapter suggest that it would be appropriate to bring them together here with the hope to find a way to preserve the planet’s life support system in all its diversity.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE

Now what do we do? [texte imprimé] / Richard L. Wyman, Auteur ; David W. Steadman, Auteur ; Martin E. Sullivan, Auteur . - Chapman and Hall, 1991 . - p 252-263.
Langues : Anglais (eng)

Catégories :	SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
Mots-clés :	CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE  EFFET DE SERRE  POLITIQUE ENVIRONMENTALE  CONSERVATION DE LA NATURE
Résumé :	This chapter talks about the environmental threats that the world faces and this world has so much momentum that unless steps are taken now to reverse them, they will soon overwhelm our ability to respond, so the effort must be concerted, rapid and clearly directed. The thoughts and analyses presented in this chapter suggest that it would be appropriate to bring them together here with the hope to find a way to preserve the planet’s life support system in all its diversity.
Numéro du document :	A/MAC
Niveau Bibliographique :	2
Bull1 (Theme principale) :	METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE
Bull2 (Theme secondaire) :	ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE