| Titre : |
Potential impact of global warming : climate change and human mortality |
| Type de document : |
texte imprimé |
| Auteurs : |
Laurence S. Kalkstein, Auteur |
| Editeur : |
Chapman and Hall |
| Année de publication : |
1991 |
| Importance : |
p 216-223 |
| Langues : |
Anglais (eng) |
| Catégories : |
SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
|
| Mots-clés : |
MORTALITE HUMAINE CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE |
| Résumé : |
This study has suggested that weather has a profound effect on human mortality and that the impact is different depending on a seasonal and regional variations. In addition, it appears that human mortality may increase if a global warming occurs similar to what is predicted by the GCMs. If the population does not acclimatize, over 7000 additional annual deaths atributable to the increasingly harsh weather can be expected in the SMSAs of the 15-city sample . This figure is more startling when it is considered that these numbers correspond to average summer conditions. An analog of the very hot summer of 1998 occuring in the 21st century will no doubt increase weather-unduced mortality to a much higher number. Although estimates for partial acclimatization are more modest, general increases are still expected and deaths attributable to weather are predicted to increase by four to five times the present levels.
The global implications of these findings are possibly more alarming and similar climate changes are predicted for Third World and other lesser developed countries and there is no reason to expect that the mortality response to more stressful weather will be any less in these regions. In fact, the migration of insect vectors, which transmit a variety of infectious diseases, may exacerbate the problem even further in underdeveloped countries where health care facilities are inadequate. Thus, it appears that specific policy decisions are necessary to prepare for a significant rise in human mortality if the warming scenarios reflect climate conditions into the 21st century.
|
| Numéro du document : |
A/MAC |
| Niveau Bibliographique : |
2 |
| Bull1 (Theme principale) : |
METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE |
| Bull2 (Theme secondaire) : |
ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE |
Potential impact of global warming : climate change and human mortality [texte imprimé] / Laurence S. Kalkstein, Auteur . - Chapman and Hall, 1991 . - p 216-223. Langues : Anglais ( eng)
| Catégories : |
SCIENCES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
|
| Mots-clés : |
MORTALITE HUMAINE CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE |
| Résumé : |
This study has suggested that weather has a profound effect on human mortality and that the impact is different depending on a seasonal and regional variations. In addition, it appears that human mortality may increase if a global warming occurs similar to what is predicted by the GCMs. If the population does not acclimatize, over 7000 additional annual deaths atributable to the increasingly harsh weather can be expected in the SMSAs of the 15-city sample . This figure is more startling when it is considered that these numbers correspond to average summer conditions. An analog of the very hot summer of 1998 occuring in the 21st century will no doubt increase weather-unduced mortality to a much higher number. Although estimates for partial acclimatization are more modest, general increases are still expected and deaths attributable to weather are predicted to increase by four to five times the present levels.
The global implications of these findings are possibly more alarming and similar climate changes are predicted for Third World and other lesser developed countries and there is no reason to expect that the mortality response to more stressful weather will be any less in these regions. In fact, the migration of insect vectors, which transmit a variety of infectious diseases, may exacerbate the problem even further in underdeveloped countries where health care facilities are inadequate. Thus, it appears that specific policy decisions are necessary to prepare for a significant rise in human mortality if the warming scenarios reflect climate conditions into the 21st century.
|
| Numéro du document : |
A/MAC |
| Niveau Bibliographique : |
2 |
| Bull1 (Theme principale) : |
METEOROLOGIE ,ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE |
| Bull2 (Theme secondaire) : |
ATMOSPHERE,CLIMATOLOGIE-CONSIDERATION GENERALE |
|  |
Affiner la recherche Interroger des sources externes
